Based on these fundraising numbers, Marco Rubio is definitely surging at the right time. That’s before talking about his surge in the polls. First, let’s look at the fundraising numbers:

In another sign of growing momentum, U.S. Senate candidate Marco Rubio (R-FL) today announced that his campaign raised approximately $1.75 million during the Fourth Quarter of 2009. The overwhelming majority of this money was raised for the Republican primary and, when fundraising reports are filed with the Federal Election Commission later this week, Rubio for Senate will report approximately $2 million cash-on-hand.

The NRSC initially endorsed Gov. Crist because of his name recognition and his fundraising ability. Based on these fundraising numbers and Rubio’s surging in the polls, I’d say it’s time for the GOP alphabet organizations scrap those antiquated campaign models.

It’s not that fundraising isn’t important. It’s that a candidate with an appealing message will be able to raise funds. Just ask Scott Brown about that. All he did was raise over $1,000,000 a day the last week of his campaign.

Next, let’s look at Mr. Rubio’s surging poll numbers:

A new Quinnipiac poll (1,618 RVs, 1/20-24, MoE +/- 2.4%; GOP subsample of 673 RVs, MoE +/ 2.4%) out this morning shows former Florida House Speaker Marco Rubio (R) with the advantage over Gov. Charlie Crist (R) in the Florida Senate Republican primary. It’s the first poll to give Rubio an edge over Crist, who had been a heavy favorite in the race but has now is a top target of conservatives.

Primary Election Matchup
Rubio 47 (+12 vs. last poll, 10/21)
Crist 44 (-6)
Und 8 (-4)

Peter Brown, the poll’s director, said something that shouldn’t be overlooked. Here’s what he said that caught my attention:

“Who would have thunk it? A former state lawmaker virtually unknown outside of his South Florida home whose challenge to an exceedingly popular sitting governor for a U.S. Senate nomination had many insiders scratching their heads. He enters the race 31 points behind and seven months later sneaks into the lead,” said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. “And, the horse race numbers are not a fluke. Rubio also tops Crist on a number of other measurements from registered Republicans, who are the only folks who can vote in the primary. Rubio’s grassroots campaigning among Republican activists around the state clearly has paid off.

I would’ve thunk it because I knew that Crist’s campaigning with President Obama for the president’s Porkulus bill would hurt Crist with primary voters. This isn’t rocket science. Gov. Crist didn’t think he’d face a serious challenger so he started polishing his ‘general election credentials’ too soon. Now he’s paying the price for his liberalism.

Rubio recognized his mission. He knew that he couldn’t take conservative activists for granted. That’s likely how he attached himself to the TEA Party movement. Once he started putting his message out to TEA Party activists, Mr. Rubio’s surge began. The more people saw him as a plausible alternative to Gov. Crist, the more contributions he attracted.

The GOP primary isn’t decided by any stretch of the imagination. That said, I’d rather be in Mr. Rubio’s shoes than in Gov. Crist’s shoes. Finally, here’s Mr. Rubio’s visionary statement:

Every day, I continue to be humbled and energized by the outpouring of support from those who believe America should stay true to the principles of limited government, traditional values and individual freedom,” stated Rubio. “The best measure of our movement’s success will always be real people standing up on behalf of these principles that have made America the greatest country in history.

Elections are neither fundraising nor popularity contests. Supporter by supporter and idea by idea, we are building a campaign that is proving ideas still matter most in our democracy, but I know we have to continue working even harder against the most prolific fundraiser in Florida history.

We’re on pace in meeting our goals, and I am as confident as ever that we will have the resources to deliver our message and be successful. As we look to the long road ahead, I pledge to continue speaking with a clear voice on behalf of the ideals that are uniting voters across Florida behind our cause.

It’s obvious why Mr. Rubio is the darling of TEA Party nation and the keynote speaker at CPAC. I’ll predict now that Mr. Rubio will soon be seen as a rising star in the GOP. That isn’t exactly going out on a limb but it’s what I see happening. Based on this post, the Orlando Sentinel’s Mike Thomas thinks I’m right:

The Florida Democratic Party has been steadily attacking Charlie Crist since he announced his race for the Senate. The Democrats basically were aligning themselves with Crist’s conservative challenger, Marco Rubio, on the assumption they could beat Rubio in the general election, whereas they could not beat Crist.

So their goal was to take out the stronger of their possible opponents. Oops. Now polls are showing that Rubio may well beat Democrat Kendrick Meek by a wider margin than Charlie would. Personally, I think either Rubio or Crist would handily beat Meek, but I’m not a delusional Democrat.

Anyway, it seems the Dems have wised up enough to take Rubio very seriously and they have begun targeting him in their on-line attacks. The problem Rubio poses for Democrats is this: While he certainly does have a support base in the Tea Party movement, Rubio is not a shrill attack clown. He is measured, eloquent, reasonable and quite polite. His criticisms are always policy-based, not personal. In this regard, he is much like his mentor, Jeb Bush. Rubio defies the shrill stereotype Dems like to paint of the growing Tea Party movement. And that means trouble ahead after he beats Crist in August.

Democrats have tried painting TEA Party activists as shrill shills of the Far Right. The reality is that many TEA Party activists are disaffected Democrats and disappointed independents. The common denominator is that both groups think of President Obama, Speaker Pelosi and Sen. Reid as the radicals/extremists.

to be perfectly honest, though, whether Florida Democrats start criticizing Mr. Rubio or they don’t is largely irrelevant. Mr. Rubio’s supporters know why they support him and all the whining criticism from Democrats won’t change that even slightly.

Technorati: Polling, Fundraising, TEA Parties, Activism, Marco Rubio, Charisma, Conservatism, Charlie Crist, President Obama, Kendrick Meek, Liberals, Election 2010

Cross-posted at California Conservative