In 2006, people said that the conditions surrounding GOP candidates were toxic. Four long years later, Charlie Cook is describing President Obama as “beyond radioactive in their districts.” Veteran Washington Post columnist David Broder paints a grim picture, too:

It’s simply not true that America is ambivalent about everything when it comes to the Obama health plan.

The day after the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) gave its qualified blessing to the version of health reform produced by Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, a Quinnipiac University poll of a national cross section of voters reported its latest results.

This poll may not be as famous as some others, but I know the care and professionalism of the people who run it, and one question was particularly interesting to me.

It read: “President Obama has pledged that health insurance reform will not add to our federal budget deficit over the next decade. Do you think that President Obama will be able to keep his promise or do you think that any health care plan that Congress passes and President Obama signs will add to the federal budget deficit?”

The answer: Less than one-fifth of the voters, 19 percent of the sample, think he will keep his word. Nine of 10 Republicans and eight of 10 independents said that whatever passes will add to the torrent of red ink. By a margin of four to three, even Democrats agreed this is likely.

There are nineteen Democratic incumbents up for re-election in 2010. How many seats they’ll lose this far away from Election Night is anybody’s guess but it’s quite possible Democrats will lose 5+ seats based on this list of Democratic incumbents:

Evan Bayh, (D-IN), Michael Bennet, (D-CO), Barbara Boxer, (D-CA), Roland Burris, (D-IL), Chris Dodd, (D-CT), Byron Dorgan, (D-ND), Russ Feingold, (D-WI), Daniel Inouye, (D-HI), Patrick Leahy, (D-VT), Blanche Lincoln, (D-AR), Barb Mikulski, (D-MD), Patty Murray, (D-WA), Harry Reid, (D-NV), Charles Schumer, (D-NY), Kirsten Gillibrand, (D-NY), Arlen Specter, (D-PA), Ron Wyden, (D-OR)

Of that group, I’d rate Bennet, Burris, Dodd, Dorgan, Lincoln, Reid, Gillibrand and Specter as being highly vulnerable. If opposition to the Democrats’ big spending agenda just maintains its current level, that list is pretty much history.

Bayh, Boxer, Feingold and Murray are vulnerable only if the atmosphere is totally toxic for Democrats. Inouye, Leahy, Mikulski and Schumer are safe seats. If any of this group loses, then DC’s punditry will be stunned.

Finally, the Delaware open seat is a good pickup opportunity for the GOP, too.

As usual, Jim Geraghty asks the right question:

Just how unpopular do you have to be, by the way, to be described as “beyond radioactive”?

If the Democrats lose 6+ seats in 2010, we’ll have Jim’s answer.

Technorati: Harry Reid, Chris Dodd, Blanche Lincoln, Byron Dorgan, Roland Burris, Kirsten Gillibrand, Arlen Specter, Michael Bennet, President Obama, Speaker Pelosi, Democrats, Election 2010

Cross-posted at California Conservative