After Tuesday night’s thumping administered by independents and conservatives, I’d think it’d be wise for Democrats living in swing districts to pay attention to their constituents, especially if they attended TEA Parties and townhall meetings. That goes double for those Democrats who are considering voting in lockstep with John Conyers and Maxine Waters, especially if they’ve already voted for Cap and Tax.

Dick Morris says in his NY Post op-ed that last night’s thumping is a “A Deathblow for ObamaCare”:

New Jersey is the quintessential blue state. If it goes Republican, blue state congressmen needn’t worry. Their districts are likely still safe. But when a Republican in Virginia wins by 20 points, it sends a message to red-state Democratic congressmen to take cover.

Polls indicate a declining level of popular approval of the Obama policies (Rasmussen shows his job approval at 46 percent), but to see actual Democrats losing or barely squeaking out victories in solidly blue states sends a far clearer message to the Democrats in Congress.

Until last night, Democratic moderates, the so-called blue dogs, could bask in the light of their candidate’s success in 2008. But now they must hear hoof beats behind them. The party discipline on which Obama depends to pass a health-care program that Americans reject by 42 percent for, 55 percent against (Rasmussen again) will only work if beleaguered Democratic incumbents can wrap themselves in Obama’s cloak and tough out the popular criticism. But the limits of Obama’s drawing power are readily apparent in the Republicans’ 20-point victory in Virginia and the race in New Jersey.

This should tell the 83 Democrats that serve in districts that John McCain won in 2008 that there’s a limit to how much President Obama helps them. In fact, the message that last night’s results tell us is that these red district Democrats had better tread alot more lightly, especially with Pelosicare.

Glenn Reynolds makes a great point about that in his NY Post op-ed:

The good news for Obama is that he doesn’t have to run for re-election for three more years, so he still has a chance to get his feet under him. But for Congress members facing elections in a year, including but not limited to the famous “blue-dog” Democrats, the lesson of this week is that Obama can’t save their seats if the public is unhappy (and, equally, that Obama probably can’t hurt them much, either).

In other words, swing district Democrats are on their own this election cycle. That isn’t as good for them as it might sound. Prior to last night’s elections, these swing district Democrats were likely counting on substantial political cover from President Obama after they voted for unpopular things like Cap And Tax and Pelosicare.

A year ago, that would’ve been a reasonable thing to count on. This year, it looks like a fool’s bet.

The question now becomes more a question of whether swing district Democrats can afford to blindly follow Speaker Pelosi on controversial legislation like Pelosicare. I’m betting that that answer is no. With Speaker Pelosi’s popularity tanking, these Democrats have to feel a little like a Minnesota deer hunter wearing blue jeans, a flannel shirt and a light vest on a stand left unprotected from a northwest wind. In other words, these Democrats likely are feeling more than a little chilly.

Speaker Pelosi has run her caucus like a ward boss. That might get results early on but it’s a great way to earn enemies for future battles. Right now, I’d think that there’s an abundance of Democrats thinking that disobeying the Speaker is a great thing to re-establish their political viability for 2010.

The best way for Democrats to re-establish their independence from Speaker Pelosi is by voting against Pelosicare. Now let’s see if they’re smart enough to make this major adjustment.

Technorati: Elections, Pelosicare, President Obama, Speaker Pelosi, John Conyers, Maxine Waters, Health Care, Cap And Trade, Blue Dogs, Democrats, Independents, Conservatives, Op-Ed, Glenn Reynolds

Cross-posted at California Conservative