Last week, I said that Democrats, without exception, cited the same EIA report. I’ve said that it’s like they don’t want to trust industry experts, that they’d rather trust a bureaucrat than an industry expert. I’m about to destroy the Democrats’ credibility with some new information:

Recently, for example, some have pointed an Energy Information Administration (EIA) report that estimated the amount of oil we could produce on the Outer Continental Shelf (OCS) if the drilling ban were lifted. EIA estimated this to be approximately 200,000 barrels per day.

Unfortunately, this figure, and the data it was based on, is fatally flawed. For example:

200,000 barrels per day is roughly equal to the daily production rate one new offshore platform in the Gulf of Mexico. The Thunder Horse oil production facility, which will be on line this year, is designed to produce 250,000 barrels per day. 2
The Atlantis oil platform currently producing in the Gulf of Mexico has a production capacity of 200,000 barrels per day. 3

It’s difficult to believe that someone’s research is that sloppy. It’s more difficult to believe that Democrats didn’t know this when they started citing this report. Either they’re too lazy to dig into the veracity of the report or they didn’t want to know or they knew the truth and just ignored it because it didn’t fit their storyline. As damning as that information is, this information doesn’t help Democrats’ credibility either:

Historically, technological improvements and on-site exploration and development have increased technically recoverable resource estimates. For example, world proved oil reserves were estimated to be 521 billion barrels in 1971 when oil was $1.25 per barrel ($6.61 in 2007 dollars) and are estimated under present technology to be 1,317 billion barrels at an average price per barrel in 2007 of $67. 5
EIA’s analysis is based on crude oil prices averaging around $50 per barrel in 2005 dollars 6 (or around $80 per barrel in 2030 assuming a 2 percent per year inflation rate), well below the current price of around $120 per barrel.
EIA’s analysis assumes that exploration, development, and production of economical fields (drilling schedules, costs, platform selection, reserves-to-production ratios, etc.) in the OCS are based on data from fields in the western Gulf of Mexico that are of similar water depth and size. Since the majority of the resources under moratoria (55 percent) are off the coast of California, the analysis should have used data from the Santa Barbara Channel, which would have provided more realistic assumptions and higher production levels.
EIA’s analysis assumes that leasing would begin no sooner than 2012, and production would not be expected to start before 2017. Yet, off the coast of California, some of these resources have already been leased. A report from Wall Street research house Sanford C. Bernstein says that California actually could start producing new oil within one year if the moratoria were lifted. The California oil is under shallow water and already has been explored. Drilling platforms have been in place since before the moratorium. 7
Further, Department of Interior Secretary Kempthorne announced in July a new 5
year plan that will allow leasing to start 2 years earlier, in 2010, implying production from currently unleased areas could begin as early as 2015. This new 5 year plan includes the areas under Federal moratoria. 8

In other words, the EIA’s report isn’t worth the paper it’s printed on. First off, they’re basing their report on faulty assumptions. Secondly, it appears as though they didn’t take into consideration the fact that some California rigs were in shallow water with infrastructure already built. Did the EIA ignore those important factors? Or was their research just that sloppy? It’s difficult to believe that anyone would be unaware of such important infrastructure.

Shouldn’t Democrats be punished for being either ignorant or untrustworthy? Shouldn’t they be held accountable for trusting in just one report, especially a report as fatally flawed as this one?

Finally, I find it disgusting that Democrats didn’t dig into this report more. The numbers were astonishingly low, low enough to question. It’s also disturbing that they were this sloppy or indifferent when people are hurting.

Technorati: Gas Crisis, EIA, Democrats, Spin, Credibility, Election 2008

Cross-posted at California Conservative