Early in his administration, President Obama frequently talked about taking unprecedented or historic steps to turn the economy around. Based on this article, President Obama might be right about ‘accomplishing’ something historic:
Analysts now expect revenue to grow at just 1 percent to 1.5 percent pace in the third quarter. The forecast for the fourth quarter is 3.9 percent, though Colas says “I doubt any analyst could defend this point of view unless they expect a rapidly weakening dollar…or a truly epic round of liquidity-pumping operations from the world’s central banks.”
A GDP of almost 4% in Q4 is only possible if a) people start thinking that Mitt Romney will defeat President Obama and b) repeal of the ACA is imminent.
If it’s a nailbiter of a race, expect the economy to slug along at 1 or 2% growth. Companies have indicated, quite clearly in fact, that they’ll keep their money parked until Obama isn’t president. They’ve sent the signal that they won’t expand until they know their taxes won’t skyrocket. Likewise, they’ve sent the signal that they won’t lift a finger because they’re worried about the ACA’s regulations.
Otherwise, it’s possible we’ll have a second recession in a presidential term.
Treading water isn’t what the American people are looking for. They want prosperity. Forget that. They’re demanding prosperity. Each day, they’re seeing that President Obama will only deliver “the new normal.”